Japan Reportedly Preparing to Resume IR License Bidding

Japan’s long-awaited integrated resort (IR) sector is stirring once again, with the Japan Casino Regulatory Commission reportedly preparing to reopen bidding for the country’s two remaining IR licences later this year.

The move signals renewed momentum for Japan’s casino industry, which has been sluggish since the legalization of IRs in 2018. Although initial projections were bold—some analysts forecasting up to $40 billion in annual gross gaming revenue—the COVID-19 pandemic, strict regulations, and a slow-moving approval process stalled progress and discouraged investor enthusiasm.

A Slow Start

Out of the original three IR licences, only one was awarded in 2023—to a consortium led by MGM Resorts and Orix Corporation. Their $8.9 billion project, MGM Osaka, officially broke ground last month on Yumeshima Island and is scheduled to open in 2030.

This integrated resort is being seen as a bellwether for Japan’s broader casino ambitions. The sprawling development will feature:

• Three hotels with a combined 2,500 rooms

• 68,000 sq. m. of meeting and convention space

• Over 14 restaurants

• A shopping mall, spa, and a 3,000-seat theater

• A 69,700 sq. m. gaming floor with 6,400 slot machines and 470 table games (despite the casino occupying only 3% of the total area)

New Leadership, New Hopes

The prospect of fresh bidding was revived in December 2024 when Japan’s parliament, the Diet, approved a new slate of gaming commissioners. The appointments included:

• Takafumi Sato (Chairman), a former prosecutor who helped build Japan’s IR framework

• Junichi Kakimizu, ex-head of the National Tax College

• Michiko Watari, psychiatrist, reappointed as commissioner

• Plus two current members: law enforcement veteran Hirofumi Kitamura and economics professor Keiko Ishikawa

Their leadership is expected to bring clarity and renewed drive to the application process.

Investor Interest Reignited?

While early enthusiasm faded—particularly after firms like Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, and Melco exited Japan citing low returns or political changes—interest may be rekindling. According to Hokkaido Shimbun, a recent unofficial government survey found that several prefectures, including Hokkaido, remain interested in hosting an IR.

In previous rounds, companies such as Hard Rock International, Mohegan Gaming, and Rush Street eyed Hokkaido as a prime candidate.

Yet, the ultimate prize could be Tokyo. Japan’s capital boasts a population of 37 million and welcomed nearly 20 million international tourists and over 540 million domestic visitors in 2023 alone—making it a potentially unparalleled market for an IR.

Eyes on Osaka

Experts say the success or failure of MGM Osaka will heavily influence the next wave of investment.

According to Steve Gallaway, managing partner at Global Market Advisors, “If Osaka performs well, there will be a push for further development.”

Financial analyst Howard Jay Klein described the project as the “first true mega ‘city within a city’ property,” offering a new vision of integrated resorts designed to compete not only with regional rivals but also the rise of online gaming.

Speaking at G2E Asia in Macau, MGM President of Global Development Ed Bowers said the resort will deliver:

• $1.1 billion annually to Osaka’s economy via taxes and entry fees

• Approximately $750 million USD to Japan’s national government

Klein also noted that MGM will retain a “first mover advantage” until at least 2035, giving Osaka a valuable head start.

What’s Next?

If Japan does move forward with a second round of bidding, expectations will hinge on streamlined regulations, more supportive local governments, and above all, the performance of MGM Osaka.

For investors and operators still intrigued by the Japanese market, this year could mark the true beginning of the country’s long-promised casino industry.